This month’s advocacy article covers the recent firearm owners’ survey/study from Dr (Professor) William English at Georgetown University. This is the follow up to his 2022 study which used survey data from 2021. Throughout the article I will use both 2021 (survey) and 2022 (study) referencing the previous work, it is the same body of work. The 2026 study is by far the most extensive survey of firearms owners, even surpassing his 2022 study.
Copy and paste the website below this paragraph in your Internet browser, or click this link to access the abstract. Click “download this paper” from the abstract page to get the entire paper in pdf. The abstract has most of the pertinent info, but there is more to glean from the paper itself. I read all 76 pages (no help from artificial intelligence this time) since this kind of study is something I come across in my job as a Management Analyst, and so you won’t have to read it (kind of kidding, kind of not kidding. It really gets into the weeds.)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7347338
What follows is my synopsis of the study, in “bullet format” (pun intended) broken down into 8 main points. Not all-encompassing or a scholarly work, just me trying to distill it down to the nitty-gritty. (My comments are in parenthesis.)
The Survey:
- Started with 51,398 US residents over the age of 18
- Identified 16,688 gun owner (these are the gun owners who stayed for the entire survey)
- Larger sample size than 2021 survey (was just under 16,000)
- Significantly larger than the Gary Kleck (Florida State University) Study from 1994 (around 5,000 surveyed)
- Stronger quality control than the 2022 study:
— Used low reCAPTHA (click on the bus/traffic lights etc.) scores to eliminate bad actors
— More controls to eliminate duplicate responses
- More specific questions:
— Specific questions on AR-15/AK-47/similar platform ownership
— Questions on magazines with >10 round capacity
— More specific questions on firearms in self-defense
- Very representative on number surveyed per State/aligns with population
— Texas and California had the most surveyed
— Vermont and Wyoming were at the bottom of the number surveyed list
Number of Gun Owners/Demographics:
- 88 million adult gun owners in the US
- Estimates 32.7%-35% of adult population owns firearm(s)
— Used different methodologies from other survey entities
— Percentage ranges reflected in the paper will show
— 95% (confidence level, means a normal distribution pattern based on standard deviations from the mean/average)
— Confidence Interval shows the percentage range based on standard deviations from the mean (some will be larger due Variation which is standard deviation divided by the mean)
- 45.7% of gun owners are female
- Race/ethnicity percentage as gun owners:
— White: 34.6%
— Black: 33%
— Hispanic: 33.1%
— Asian: 23% (To me this is very significant considering the incredibly low number of privately owned firearms in Japan/South Korea/Taiwan)
Number of Guns in the US:
- 461 million firearms privately owned in the US:
— Increase of 11% over the 415 million from the 2022 study
- 208 million handguns
- 154 million rifles
- 99 million shotguns (less than 100 million? We need to pump these shotgun numbers up! See what I did there? Just checking to see if you’re paying attention.)
- 91.6% of gun owners own a handgun
- 63.5% of gun owners own a rifle
- 53.6% of gun owners own a shotgun
- Handgun ownership percentage:
— Significant increase over the 82.7% in the 2022 study
— (Major driver is new gun owners buying handguns)
Numbers and Percentage of Americans Carrying Handguns (these are numbers for age 21 and over in this section)
- 70% of gun owners reported carrying under some circumstances
- 33.6 million (over 21) gun owners carry at least sometimes
— 49.2% of gun owners carry at least sometimes
— 14.4% carry always/almost always
— 11.4% carry often
- This is a HUGE increase over the 2022 study:
— 20.7 million (over 21) gun owners carried at least sometimes in the 2022 study
— (That is a 61.6% increase… HUGE!!)
- 36% reported they wanted to carry but could not due to laws/rules preventing carry
— Was not specific on the circumstances (why can’t I carry at the Indiana Statehouse? I can in Kentucky!)
— With a State population-based sample there will be many large population/anti 2nd Amendment States such as California/New York/Illinois represented
- 58.6% of gun owners report having a license/permit to carry a handgun
— Significant increase (20%) from 47.2% in the 2021 data
— Caveat: 10 States have been adopted Constitutional Carry (ConC) since 2021. Numbers could reflect individuals seeing ConC as a license/permit
— 10.5% of gun owners report having a license/permit from more than one State
Self-Defense:
- 37.6% of gun owners (33.1 million American adults) have used a firearm:
— In the defense of themselves/others/property
— Includes data from all 50 States plus DC, (some States have deadly force authorized to protect property)
- Extrapolates to 2.2 million incidents of using a firearm in the defense of self/others/property per year
— Significant increase (31.7%) over the 1.67 million defense incidents per year in the 2022 study
— 76.3% had no shots fired
— This is a significant decrease over the 81.9% in the 2022 study
— (Not in the study/my observation: )
—- (In that time a significant increase in the number/percentage of justified homicides has been noted)
—- (Homicide numbers decreasing across the country, higher percentage of justified homicides will drive the zero-shots fired numbers down)
— 50.8% of gun owners surveyed encountered more than one assailant:
— 32.9%: two
— 17.9%: three or more (this is why I don’t carry a 5-shot S&W .38 Special J-frame backed up with a Derringer)
— Firearms used in defense including no shots fired:
— Handgun: 74%
— Rifle: 16.4%
— Shotgun: 9.6%
— 70.6% of incidents not reported to the Police
— 8.4% were defending from animals (vicious dogs/bears/gators/pythons/etc.)
— 74.6% outside the home, but 53.3% outside but on the property (not clear if apartment parking lots/grounds etc. were included)
Note: these numbers exclude Police/Military/Security incidents
AR-15s/similar platforms including AK-47s, Mini-14s/etc:
- 26.5 million or 30% of gun owners have at least one of these platforms
- 25% of gun owners have an AR-15
- 12.9% have a “similar platform” (no doubt AKs, Mini-14s, many others would be “similar” but the debate on what is “similar” to an AR platform would never end)
- 7.9% have both an AR and similar platform firearms
- Numbers owned:
— Estimated 40 million AR-15s
— Estimated 20 million “similar” platforms
— (I’ll take, “In Common Use for Lawful Purposes” for $1,000, Alex)
Magazines:
- 50.5% (44.5 million) of gun owners surveyed reported having at least one magazine with a capacity greater than 10 rounds
- There are an estimated 539 million magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds currently owned in this country
— 265 million handgun magazines
— 273 million rifle magazines
— (I’ll take “In Common Use for Lawful Purposes” for $2,000, Alex)
Other Interesting Data Points:
- 24.1% of gun owners own only one gun
— 81.9%: handgun
— 10.7%: rifle
— 7.4%: shotgun
- 97.2% indicated owning 10 or fewer firearms:
— (1-10 is a pretty big range)
— (Puts a whole different perspective on the term “3%er”)
- 99.9% own fewer than 100 firearms
— (These are not 1%ers)
— (These are ZERO POINT 1%ers)
–That is 88,000 gun owners who own more than 100 firearms
Dr William English from Georgetown University actually managed to surpass his groundbreaking 2021/2022 study. Not only is it more in-depth and detailed than the previous study, but the timing is excellent. This study will be cited in Amicus (friend of the court) Briefs supporting an upcoming Supreme Court case to be heard later this year. This includes the upcoming Amicus Brief in which the ISRPA will be a named party. A lot more in the near future on that subject, stay tuned for more info.
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